Over the Hill? Michael Owen Would Disagree

By: Taylor Rockwell | July 24th, 2009

Since he signed for United nearly a month ago, there has been a fair amount of back and forth regarding Michael Owen. If you were to believe every Asian that has seen him in a United kit thus far, one might tend to believe that he was the second coming of King Eric Cantona. More neutral observers have, however, been slightly less enthralled with the signing. Certainly some see this as yet another masterstroke from Fergie, but more than a few have commented on Owen’s age and less than impressive goal scoring record.

To be certain, Michael Owen has lost some of the pace that made him the hero of that 1998 World Cup match against Argentina. But can the 29-year-old still score? If statistics are any indicator, the answers will surprise you.

Before we get into that, however, the obvious argument must be addressed: Michael Owen did very little in his time at Newcastle. Why should we expect anything different here? Let’s look at the facts.

In his 4 seasons at Newcastle, Owen made a total of 78 appearances (64 starts and 14 substitutions) and scored 29 goals (giving him a goals/appearance ratio of .37 to 1). As a comparison, in his three seasons in the Premiership (two for United and one for West Ham), Carlos Tevez made 128 appearances (95 starts and 33 substitutions) and scored 41 goals (giving him a goals/appearance ratio of .32 to 1). Obviously, these stats are a bit misleading, as Tevez gets one less year than Owen and, perhaps more importantly, notched 18 more assists in that abbreviated time span. Regardless, the fact remains that even in a less than ideal situation, Michael Owen can be an effective striker. In an ideal situation? Fourteen goals in one season for Real Madrid isn’t too shabby.

Age is also a factor for many people when debating the merits of the Owen transfer. However, in looking at the previous few EPL seasons, 29 is not quite as old as one might expect. A statistical analysis of the Top 10 Goal Scorers over the past seven seasons indicates just what an “over-the-hill” striker can do when put in the optimal situation.

Some of that information may not be particularly surprisingly. I think most would agree that a striker hits his prime from 25 to 28, and that it generally takes a fair amount of goals to win the Golden Boot. However, the fact remains that in each of the past seven seasons, multiple players who were as old or older than Owen managed to finish in the Top 10 for goals scored. It is also interesting to note that the average age for the top goal scorers has risen consistently in the past three seasons, with 30 year old Nicolas Anelka managing to finish top of the list last season.

Will Owen manage 20 goals? Wayne and I will disagree on that one. Can Michael Owen make a resounding impact for United in the coming campaign? The statistics would say yes. So would I.